Dieting dilemmas
Who could have predicted that a single diet craze would have such a wide spread ripple effect on the livestock, poultry and hog industries? And don’t forget to add nuts, cheese, potatoes, bread and pasta to that list. Depending on what you are producing, the Atkins Diet and its imitators such as the Zone and South Beach are either a blessing or a curse.
Consumption of foods rich in carbohydrates has plummeted in North America over the past few years. The oddest part is Dr. Robert Atkins published his first diet book roughly 30 years ago. But only recently has the ‘low-carb lifestyle’ taken off – partly because of recent studies that have supported its effectiveness in weight reduction while discounting many of the much-publicized short-term health effects.
THE FARM EFFECT
So what’s it done to agricultural commodities? Anything that boasts protein has experienced a glorious surge in consumption. The Atkins mantra ‘eat meat, not wheat’ holds true for other protein sources, too, such as cheese, nuts, yogurt, eggs, etc.
Helen Bishop-McDonald, nutrition consultant formerly with Dairy Farmers of Canada, has long been a proponent of Canada’s Food Guide and has been slammed numerous times by vegetarian and animal rights activists. She has a number of interesting nicknames, including Queen of Misinformation, Bishop of Bull, Rose of . . . The sweeping tide of Atkins followers has actually had a positive effect on the dairy industry as a whole. Milk consumption has remained relatively stable while cheese and yogurt consumption has seen a steady up trend over the past several years.
“The Atkins diet permits cheese but doesn’t like milk because of the carbohydrate content from lactose (milk sugar),” says Bishop-MacDonald. “South Beach is more inclusive, instructing followers to reduce their intake of highly refined carbohydrates and that’s probably a good idea anyway.”
Beef consumption has seen a resurgence in popularity with per capita consumption in Canada rising five per cent in 2003 over 2002. Approximately every Canadian is consuming about 51.6 pounds (23.4 kg) of beef each year according to Statistics Canada figures based on retail equivalents.
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With roughly seven per cent of the population on low-carb diets, grocery manufacturers and retailers have jumped on the billion-dollar bandwagon. |
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The lowly egg is another beneficiary of the new low-carb craze. Once touted as vein cloggers and heart bombs, they are once again in vogue. Sales are up by double digits and the wholesale price of eggs nearly doubled in 2003. The stock prices of Cal-Maine Foods, a leading U.S. fresh egg producer was up over 800 per cent last year.
Domestic potato consumption figures are unavailable but Ivan Noonan, general manager of the PEI Potato Marketing Board suspects Canadian trends are similar to the U.S. Mac Johnson, vice president of domestic marketing for the United States Potato Board agrees trends would be similar. While the effect of dieting has had an impact on the frequency of potato consumption, it has not reduced overall sales. Nor has the potato industry lost consumers. In 2003, sales by dollar value dropped 4.8 per cent but that’s largely attributed to significant price reductions. In pounds, sales actually rose 1.2 per cent over 2002. The year previous to that, the dollar value of sales rose 7.5 percent while pounds remained flat.
“That means the growth of the category is not keeping pace with our population growth,” explains Johnson. The states have witnessed a tremendous immigration of Hispanics – up 45 per cent over the past 10 years – to the point where Hispanics comprise 12 per cent of the American population. And they are big potato eaters. At the same time, the Asian population has grown 51 per cent over the past 10 years and they, by and large, don’t eat potatoes.
The slighting of the lowly potato is not being taken lightly. The United States Potato Board has launched a huge campaign to promote the nutritional value of potatoes. The campaign includes advertising, point of purchase material, educational tool kits for various target audiences and a push to repackage potatoes more for the convenience market – no more 10 pound bags, and ready-to-serve to meet the needs of the six o’clock rush hour crowd.
THE RETAIL FRONT
With roughly seven per cent of the population on low-carb diets, grocery manufacturers and retailers have jumped on the billion-dollar bandwagon. They’ve introduced a host of reformulated, low-carb products including ready-to-serve meals, pastas and breads.
The dieting craze has had a negative effect on consumption of flour-based products both here and in the U.S. To counter a drop in sales, Weston Bakeries and Canada Bread Company, Limited have launched new Atkins products. Other health related variations are appearing on store shelves too, including high calcium, low sodium and sugar-free breads.
Recent media attention on the high sugar content of the new Healthy Way line of organic products has sharpened consumer’s attention to the new Canadian regulations respecting nutritional labeling. Functional bakery products also are making inroads with launches like the 2004 Shasha Bread line in Ontario that promises to address differing nutritional needs of the sexes. Another example is Wellness Bread operating in Ontario and British Columbia that sells a line of bakery products containing inulin, a non-soluble dietary fibre. Inulin is a type of carbohydrate that acts as food for intestinal microflora following digestion. And beer drinkers can even buy low-carb brews with most major breweries developing new processes to reduce carbohydrate content of the most popular alcoholic beverage in North America.
BEYOND CARBS
And then we have the whole good fat : bad fat debate. Trans fats are the latest taboo and introductions of healthy cooking oils are hoping to capture significant market share. In Canada, Nexera* canola makes Natreon canola oil which is naturally stable without hydrogenation and is virtually trans-fat free.
“We expect the demand for Natreon canola oil and contracted canola acres to significantly increase,” says David Dzisiak, Dow AgroSciences Marketing Director. Increased demand in North American and enthusiasm from the Japanese market for improved oil functionality is creating significant market opportunities for growers and food processors. A recent trans-fat labeling announcement from the Canadian government will force food manufacturers to use healthy oil choices in their processes.
NEXT UP?
So what’s next? It looks like weight conscious consumers and those suffering from obesity are starting to look for the next magic bullet. As PEI’s Ivan Noonan points out, Atkins’ books are now off the top 50 best-seller list in the U.S. According to a survey of 2500 American in late June, about 10 per cent of U.S. adults were on low-carb diets in the second quarter down from 12 per cent in the first quarter.
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The tide has turned, leaving the beach strewn with unwanted litter. |
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And now, it seems there’s a glut of low-carb products on the market. U.S. food and beverage makers introduced 1,863 products or packages making low-carb claims this year alone – that’s triple the number introduced last year according to Marketing Intelligence. Manufacturers spent a tonne of money on new products and reformulations and it looks like the tide has turned, leaving the beach strewn with unwanted litter.
Diet fads come and go because people’s tastes are formed over a lifetime. They still like cream in their coffee and great tasting high fat ice cream, yogurt, marbled beef and fresh potatoes smothered in butter, salt and pepper. Everyone knows a steady diet of that is not a good thing. But life is short. Most won’t sacrifice taste all the time.
For farmers who produce delectable food items or high quality inputs, hang tough is the bottom line. Reason will likely never prevail among the dieting masses. But the next magic bullet just might be aiming straight at your farm gate.
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