{"id":75193,"date":"2023-08-29T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-29T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2024-01-22T13:01:52","modified_gmt":"2024-01-22T18:01:52","slug":"interest-rates-are-up-inflations-cooling-so-why-are-prices-still-so-high","status":"publish","type":"rbc_my_money_matter","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/inspired-investor\/investing-academy\/interest-rates-are-up-inflations-cooling-so-why-are-prices-still-so-high\/","title":{"rendered":"Interest Rates are Up, Inflation&#8217;s Cooling. So Why Are Prices Still So High?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-single-article-header\">\n\t<section class=\"section-grey cover pad-t-hlf\">\n\t\t<div class=\"section-inner w-half w-mob-full centered-margin cover section-grey pad-tb-0\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"inline-block pill-container pill-taxonomies\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"mar-b-hlf mob-mar-b snipe pill is-style-blue-pill\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"primary-taxonomy\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/topic\/personal-finance\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span>Personal Finance<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<h1 class=\"mar-b-hlf mar-t-0 mob-pad-lr-hlf h2 has-black-color\">Interest Rates are Up, Inflation&#8217;s Cooling. So Why Are Prices Still So High?<\/h1><p class=\"mar-b-0 mob-pad-lr-hlf author-text\">By the Inspired Investor team<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"featured-image-wrapper pos-rel\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"930\" height=\"620\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2023\/09\/Untitled-design-2023-08-28T152321.030.jpg?quality=80\" class=\" cover-image  wp-post-image\" alt=\"A person reviews the cost of groceries.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2023\/09\/Untitled-design-2023-08-28T152321.030.jpg 930w, https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2023\/09\/Untitled-design-2023-08-28T152321.030.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2023\/09\/Untitled-design-2023-08-28T152321.030.jpg?resize=768,512 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 930px) 100vw, 930px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n\t<div class=\"article mar-t-dbl\">\n\t\t\t\t<section>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"section-inner socials-section\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"top-socials-bar mob-mar-b-hlf\">    <div class=\"social-links mob-mar-b-hlf mob-mar-t-hlf\">\n            <a class=\"social-button-wrapper sharing-custom sharing-email\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Interest Rates are Up, Inflation&#8217;s Cooling. So Why Are Prices Still So High? &#038;body=Hi, I thought you might be interested in this article from RBC My Money Matters: https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/inspired-investor\/investing-academy\/interest-rates-are-up-inflations-cooling-so-why-are-prices-still-so-high\/\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/plugins\/rbc-blocks\/assets\/img\/icons\/icon-email.svg\"\n          alt=\"envelope icon\">\n        <span>\n          Email        <\/span>\n      <\/a>\n      <div class=\"social-button-wrapper sharing-copy-wrapper\">\n        <button class=\"sharing-custom sharing-copy\" data-url=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/inspired-investor\/investing-academy\/interest-rates-are-up-inflations-cooling-so-why-are-prices-still-so-high\/\">\n          <img decoding=\"async\"\n            src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/plugins\/rbc-blocks\/assets\/img\/icons\/icon-related.svg\"\n            alt=\"copy icon\">\n          <span id=\"sharing-copyUrl-Label\">\n            Copy URL          <\/span>\n        <\/button>\n        <input type=\"text\" class=\"sharing-copy-text\" aria-labelledby=\"sharing-copyUrl-Label\">\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"section-inner w-half w-mob-full centered-margin pad-tb-0 mob-mar-t-hlf mob-mar-b\">\n\t\t\t\t<p class=\"cover-pub-line text-xs mar-b-hlf\">Published August 29, 2023 \u2022 6 Min Read<\/p>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner w-half w-mob-full\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p>While inflation has slowed markedly, things might not feel much better at the cash register. Prices are still going up \u2013 on groceries, rents and more \u2013 just at a slower pace. Meanwhile, central banks have been careful not to declare victory over sticky inflation, with many promising to act again if rates flare back up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Canada, the Bank of Canada (BoC) raised interest rates 10 times since March 2022, part of a global campaign by Western central banks to tame inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So why haven&#8217;t the successive waves of rate increases brought inflation down to the target range of about two per cent, where rates feel much more predictable? The short answer, economists argue, is that factors pushing up inflation are often out of central banks&#8217; control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s a look at some of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Interest-rate increases don&#8217;t work right away<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Higher interest rates mean it&#8217;s more expensive for people and companies to borrow. As consumers, we can feel the effects pretty quickly \u2013 think payments on car loans or mortgages. But it&#8217;s important to note that interest-rate decisions actually work with a lag in the big scheme of things. Generally, economists expect it to take around a year to 18 months for the effects of central banks&#8217; efforts to trickle into the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Much like a spigot, <a>a <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/discover.rbcroyalbank.com\/a-bank-with-a-mission-how-central-banks-shape-the-economy-and-your-money-decisions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">central bank is tasked<\/a> with ensuring <i>just<\/i> the right amount of money \u2013 not too much, not too little \u2013 is floating around the economy to keep it humming at a predictable pace. Central banks raise rates to increase the cost of borrowing in hopes of cooling an economy. Conversely, they may cut rates to reduce debt costs and stimulate economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When central banks make rate decisions, not every sector will be affected in the same way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cDiscretionary goods and services are most sensitive to interest-rate decisions,&#8221; says Carrie Freestone, an RBC economist. The housing market is also rate-sensitive, as higher borrowing costs tend to slow demand, though home prices in many Canadian cities have held steady in recent months partly due to tight supply. (But that&#8217;s another conversation!)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Freestone says higher interest rates and prices have yet to significantly dampen spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThanks to pandemic lockdowns, we still have exceptional levels of pent-up demand for discretionary services, which means that they have been insulated from higher rates a little bit this time around. Many Canadians appear to be willing to pay a bit more for travel and restaurants,&#8221; she says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Canada&#8217;s population is getting older<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>When there are not enough young workers to replace retirees, it&#8217;s bad news for inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The world is getting old \u2013 and fast. Globally, one in every four people may be aged 65 years or older by 2050, according to data from the United Nations<sup>1 <\/sup>. Meanwhile, birth rates have been declining in many advanced economies, including here in Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn some industries like the skilled trades, a quarter of the labour force in that sector is set to retire in the next decade,&#8221; says Freestone, adding that a greying workforce is inflationary. Why? As the workforce shrinks, employers will have to pay more, pushing up wages. Labour shortages could also crimp production, driving up the cost of goods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf we have structurally higher wage growth resulting from labour shortages, we&#8217;ll need a counterbalance. Otherwise, demand will outpace supply and we&#8217;ll have inflation again,&#8221; says Freestone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Government spending can get out of step with interest rates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Government spending and taxation decisions \u2013 collectively known as fiscal policy \u2013 also help determine the amount of money circulating through the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, government income-support programs during the pandemic increased household savings, allowing people to keep spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to a 2023 BoC working paper<sup>2 <\/sup>, government spending can fuel inflation to the same extent that tight labour markets can.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Freestone agrees. \u201cHigher government spending puts more money in the hands of consumers who will spend it,&#8221; Freestone says, explaining that fiscal policy should ideally move in the same direction of monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf the federal government is injecting excess cash into the economy when the BoC is moving to hike, excess cash can weaken the impact of each rate hike,&#8221; she explains. \u201cCanadians will ultimately spend the extra cash they&#8217;re given, so excess cash fuels demand (and subsequently inflation).&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Housing costs make up a big chunk of inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In theory, central banks increase interest rates to tame inflation by making borrowing more expensive. The reality is more complicated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shelter costs \u2013 like your mortgage or rent \u2013 account for 28 per cent of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), used by economists to calculate inflation, says Freestone. Amid rate hikes, mortgage costs alone have shot up 30 per cent from a year ago as of July 2023, <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/interest-rates-to-stay-higher-for-longer\/\">data<\/a> from RBC Economics shows, accounting for about a third of year-over-year growth of headline inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What does that tell us? While interest-rate hikes may have succeeded in slowing price increases on, say, your grocery bill, the resulting increase to shelter costs offset a chunk of that progress, making inflation that much stickier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">An interconnected world<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The causes of high inflation aren&#8217;t confined to Canada&#8217;s borders. Macroeconomic events, including political ones, can mess with the BoC&#8217;s best efforts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For instance, Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine, a major food exporter, led to grain shortages that pushed up prices of bread and other goods. According to an estimate<sup>3 <\/sup> of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the war likely had increased global inflation by 1.3 per cent in 2022. And when thousands of port workers went on strike in B.C. in July, there were concerns that inflation could flare up amid the walkout due to concerns over supply-chain disruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Let&#8217;s be real: fighting inflation is tough<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Interest rates are a powerful inflation-fighting tool in the Bank of Canada&#8217;s toolbelt, but if we take a look at the above, they&#8217;re not a magic wand for runaway inflation. It takes dedicated effort, smart decision-making, impeccable timing and (as any economist will tell you) a whole lot of luck to bring inflation down from multi-decade highs without triggering a deep recession. A lot to think about? Definitely. For now, we can just watch and wait to see what the BoC does next. Keep an eye on <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/economics\/\">rbc.com\/economics<\/a> for regular updates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sources:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>1 <\/sup>United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2022. &#8220;World Population Prospects 2022.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>2 <\/sup>Bank of Canada, June 2023. &#8220;Understanding Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Government Expenditures.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>3 <\/sup>U.S. Federal Reserve, May 2022. &#8220;The Effect of the War in Ukraine on Global Activity and Inflation.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-default-collapsible\"><p><button class=\"collapse-toggle collapsed\" data-target=\"#collapse0c224fe9\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"collapse0c224fe9\" data-dig-id=\"LP-75193-undefined\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"accordion closed\" action-closed=\"accordion closed\" action-opened=\"accordion open\" data-dig-label=\"Disclaimers\"><span>Disclaimers<\/span><span>Disclaimers<\/span><\/button><\/p><div class=\"collapse-content collapse\" id=\"collapse0c224fe9\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-collapsible-inner-block collapse-inner  mar-b-qtr\">\n<p>Investment advice is provided by Royal Mutual Funds Inc. (RMFI). RMFI, RBC Global Asset Management Inc., Royal Bank of Canada, Royal Trust Corporation of Canada and The Royal Trust Company are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. RMFI is licensed as a financial services firm in the province of Quebec.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-default-collapsible\"><p><button class=\"collapse-toggle collapsed\" data-target=\"#collapse834a1009\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"collapse834a1009\" data-dig-id=\"LP-57738-834a1009\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"accordion closed\" action-closed=\"accordion closed\" action-opened=\"accordion open\" data-dig-label=\"Things our lawyers want you to know\"><span>Things our lawyers want you to know<\/span><span>Things our lawyers want you to know<\/span><\/button><\/p><div class=\"collapse-content collapse\" id=\"collapse834a1009\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-collapsible-inner-block collapse-inner\">\n<p>This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\t\n\t<div class=\"wp-block-tk-spacer id-19c6df00-a6e3-42da-9671-1208a1492c5f\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center h5 mar-b\"><strong>Share This Article<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"socials-block\">\n\t\t\t    <div class=\"social-links mob-mar-b-hlf mob-mar-t-hlf\">\n            <a class=\"social-button-wrapper sharing-custom sharing-email\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Interest Rates are Up, Inflation&#8217;s Cooling. So Why Are Prices Still So High? &#038;body=Hi, I thought you might be interested in this article from RBC My Money Matters: https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/inspired-investor\/investing-academy\/interest-rates-are-up-inflations-cooling-so-why-are-prices-still-so-high\/\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/plugins\/rbc-blocks\/assets\/img\/icons\/icon-email.svg\"\n          alt=\"envelope icon\">\n        <span>\n          Email        <\/span>\n      <\/a>\n      <div class=\"social-button-wrapper sharing-copy-wrapper\">\n        <button class=\"sharing-custom sharing-copy\" data-url=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/inspired-investor\/investing-academy\/interest-rates-are-up-inflations-cooling-so-why-are-prices-still-so-high\/\">\n          <img decoding=\"async\"\n            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Finance<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel mob-pad-t-dbl\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading mar-b mob-mar-b-dbl mar-t-0\" id=\"h-read-this-next\">Read This Next<\/h2>\n\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"related-posts-type-2\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"related-post-list\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"grid-wpr eh-wpr\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class= 'grid-one-third grid-tb-full grid-mob-full mar-b'>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<article class=\"col-wpr mar-b-0 mar-r-0 mar-l-0\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"postcard-img-ctr post-card-image col-md-12 col-xs-6 mob-mar-b-0 pad-l-0\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"930\" height=\"620\" 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href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/money-academy\/banking-basics\/budgeting\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\tBudgeting\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/money-academy\/banking-basics\/budgeting\/2026-financial-roadmap-aligning-your-budget-borrowing-and-investments-to-your-goals\/\" class=\"card-title h4 mar-t-0\">2026 Financial Roadmap: A Guide to Debt, Budgeting and Investing in Canada<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\">\n\t\t.wp-block-tk-spacer.id-19c6df00-a6e3-42da-9671-1208a1492c5f {\n\t\theight: 96px;\n\t}\n\n\t@media ( max-width: 480px ) {\n\t\t.wp-block-tk-spacer.id-19c6df00-a6e3-42da-9671-1208a1492c5f {\n\t\t\theight: 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