{"id":90519,"date":"2024-11-07T13:56:43","date_gmt":"2024-11-07T18:56:43","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2024-11-07T14:05:04","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T19:05:04","slug":"the-canadian-economy-analyzing-past-trends-to-forecast-future-outlook","status":"publish","type":"rbc_my_money_matter","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/goals-aspirations\/travel-and-cross-border\/living-in-the-us\/the-canadian-economy-analyzing-past-trends-to-forecast-future-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"The Canadian Economy: Analyzing Past Trends to Forecast Future Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-single-article-header\">\n\t<section class=\"section-grey cover pad-t-hlf\">\n\t\t<div class=\"section-inner w-half w-mob-full centered-margin cover section-grey pad-tb-0\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"inline-block pill-container pill-taxonomies\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"mar-b-hlf mob-mar-b snipe pill is-style-blue-pill\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"primary-taxonomy\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/topic\/cross-border\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span>Cross-Border<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<h1 class=\"mar-b-hlf mar-t-0 mob-pad-lr-hlf h2 has-black-color\">The Canadian Economy: Analyzing Past Trends to Forecast Future Outlook<\/h1><p class=\"mar-b-0 mob-pad-lr-hlf author-text\">By Diane Amato<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"featured-image-wrapper pos-rel\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"708\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2024\/11\/econ-outlook2024-iStock-1145283404.jpg?quality=80\" class=\" cover-image  wp-post-image\" alt=\"Businessman watching the New York City on the rooftop of skyscraper\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2024\/11\/econ-outlook2024-iStock-1145283404.jpg 5184w, https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2024\/11\/econ-outlook2024-iStock-1145283404.jpg?resize=300,207 300w, https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2024\/11\/econ-outlook2024-iStock-1145283404.jpg?resize=768,531 768w, https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2024\/11\/econ-outlook2024-iStock-1145283404.jpg?resize=1024,708 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2024\/11\/econ-outlook2024-iStock-1145283404.jpg?resize=1536,1062 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2024\/11\/econ-outlook2024-iStock-1145283404.jpg?resize=2048,1416 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n\t<div class=\"article mar-t-dbl\">\n\t\t\t\t<section>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"section-inner socials-section\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"top-socials-bar mob-mar-b-hlf\">    <div class=\"social-links mob-mar-b-hlf mob-mar-t-hlf\">\n            <a class=\"social-button-wrapper sharing-custom sharing-email\" href=\"mailto:?subject=The Canadian Economy: Analyzing Past Trends to Forecast Future Outlook &#038;body=Hi, I thought you might be interested in this article from RBC My Money Matters: https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/goals-aspirations\/travel-and-cross-border\/living-in-the-us\/the-canadian-economy-analyzing-past-trends-to-forecast-future-outlook\/\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/plugins\/rbc-blocks\/assets\/img\/icons\/icon-email.svg\"\n          alt=\"envelope icon\">\n        <span>\n          Email        <\/span>\n      <\/a>\n      <div class=\"social-button-wrapper sharing-copy-wrapper\">\n        <button class=\"sharing-custom sharing-copy\" data-url=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/goals-aspirations\/travel-and-cross-border\/living-in-the-us\/the-canadian-economy-analyzing-past-trends-to-forecast-future-outlook\/\">\n          <img decoding=\"async\"\n            src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/plugins\/rbc-blocks\/assets\/img\/icons\/icon-related.svg\"\n            alt=\"copy icon\">\n          <span id=\"sharing-copyUrl-Label\">\n            Copy URL          <\/span>\n        <\/button>\n        <input type=\"text\" class=\"sharing-copy-text\" aria-labelledby=\"sharing-copyUrl-Label\">\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"section-inner w-half w-mob-full centered-margin pad-tb-0 mob-mar-t-hlf mob-mar-b\">\n\t\t\t\t<p class=\"cover-pub-line text-xs mar-b-hlf\">Published November 7, 2024 \u2022 10 Min Read<\/p>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner w-half w-mob-full\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p>The Canadian economy is cooling off after a period of \u201coverheating\u201d \u2014 a term economists use to describe excessive growth that strains resources. Following the far-reaching impacts of the pandemic, the economic outlook is now stabilizing, both in Canada and the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RBC economist Carrie Freestone revisits 2020 to shed light on the current economic landscape and offers insights on the future of both the Canadian and U.S. economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized  mar-b-hlf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"935\" height=\"989\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2024\/11\/Carrie-Freestone-headshot.jpg?quality=80&amp;w=935\" alt=\"Carrie Freestone headshot\" class=\"wp-image-90520\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9453993933265925;width:304px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2024\/11\/Carrie-Freestone-headshot.jpg 935w, https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2024\/11\/Carrie-Freestone-headshot.jpg?resize=284,300 284w, https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2024\/11\/Carrie-Freestone-headshot.jpg?resize=768,812 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 935px) 100vw, 935px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">&#8220;It all started in 2020&#8221;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The current economic conditions are a direct outcome of the pandemic, Freestone notes. Subsequent economic shocks and the aggressive recovery efforts that followed highlight the complex and winding path both countries took to arrive at today\u2019s position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cReal GDP contracted by about 17% from peak to trough, and there were roughly 3 million jobs lost in Canada during the onset of the pandemic,\u201d she explains. \u201cAt one point in May 2020, the unemployment rate in Canada reached 14%. That\u2019s a very significant shock.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What happened next was greatly increased demand in certain sectors, which set the stage for strong inflation. For instance, lumber was difficult to get during the pandemic due to the demand for home improvement projects and supply issues caused by COVID shutdowns. Later, restaurants faced higher food and labour costs, while patrons were willing to pay extra after spending months at home. When Russia invaded Ukraine, global oil prices increased rapidly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Freestone recalls this period as it set the stage for double-digit food inflation in 2022. \u201cWhen the Bank of Canada and the Fed realized inflation wasn\u2019t going away anytime soon, they hiked interest rates very aggressively. This aggressive monetary policy worked to cool demand, but it did take time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, as inflation has returned to its target rate near 2%, the economic situation is starting to level off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Are we in a recession?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the questions Freestone is often asked is if Canada is in a recession. Economic activity has slowed in Canada, and the country has a lower GDP per capita than similar countries. For many households in Canada, times feel tougher than ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many economists, however, are saying that Canada is not in a recession, primarily due to the broader growth in the economy. Why?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn Canada, we have had exceptionally strong levels of immigration over the last few years,\u201d explains Freestone. \u201cWe have welcomed over 2 million new people to the economy since mid-2022, and each of those people are consumers. Immigration has managed to keep overall output from outright declining \u2014 I\u2019m one of the economists who will comfortably say that if it hadn\u2019t been for record immigration in the last few years, Canada would likely be in a recession right now.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How the U.S. economy compares<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>For some time, the U.S. has been significantly outperforming Canada, primarily because Americans didn&#8217;t pull back their spending the way Canadians have.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the main reasons is that Americans are often less sensitive to interest rates than Canadians. For instance, &nbsp;in the U.S., many people have longer-term mortgages, so it\u2019s often cheaper and easier for them to renegotiate. This makes for an environment where homeowners may feel the impacts of interest rates less acutely than their Canadian counterparts. And while both Canadians and Americans had been sitting on record levels of pandemic savings, Americans have nearly depleted theirs. The fact that Canadians are instead expanding their savings is likely due to the recent interest rate environment and its effect on day-to-day purchasing power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Freestone notes, however, that she is seeing some pull-back by Americans. \u201cThere are more risks than there were six months ago. We\u2019re starting to see signs that manufacturing activity in the U.S. is a little weaker, and there is breeze building about U.S. labour markets.\u201d She calls out the recent stock market crash in August \u2014 the result of unemployment rising at a rate consistent with past recessions \u2014 as an example of the potential cracks beginning to form.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Headline inflation is reaching its target \u2014 what does that mean for Canadians?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bank of Canada\u2019s inflation target is 1%\u20143% (the inflation rate was 1.6% as of September in Canada ). \u201cWhile we are sitting in the sweet spot, I want to emphasize that 2% inflation in 2024 is very different from 2% inflation in 2019,\u201d says Freestone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The reason for this, she says, is that two-thirds of the consumer price index (CPI) growth \u2014 a primary indicator of inflation \u2014 came from mortgage interest costs and rent. \u201cThis is something no one is immune to. Everyone has to pay for shelter,\u201d she notes. She adds that food prices are 25% higher than they were pre-pandemic, and while price growth for groceries has reached its target, it doesn\u2019t mean prices are outright declining. \u201cEven though inflation is at 2%, the pressures are felt by everyone. Before, in 2019, inflationary pressures weren\u2019t necessarily universal because they weren\u2019t all coming from shelter and food costs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the environment in the U.S. is slightly different, Freestone notes that headline inflation is pulling lower south of the border as well. Following the first interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which was an aggressive 50 basis points, the price growth of CPI basket items reported was below the pre-pandemic average. Additionally, there has been slower energy price growth in recent months, pushing headline inflation lower. \u201cThese are all positive trends,\u201d says Freestone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Interest rate forecast: Signs point to more cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Freestone explains that indicators indicate further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. One of these indicators is debt servicing costs, which are starting to rise for both businesses and consumers. Business insolvencies are starting to increase in Canada, driven in part by the fact that CEBA loans came due in January. On the consumer side of things, Canadians are spending a record share of their take-home pay on mortgage payments and servicing other debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re in a situation now where the average household is spending close to 15% of their take-home pay on servicing debt. Prices in general are up 18%, and as a result, we are starting to see consumer spending in Canada getting a little softer,\u201d says Freestone.&nbsp;&nbsp;These indicators, combined with rising credit card utilization rates and delinquencies\u2014\u2013 along with wage growth that has just barely caught up with inflation \u2014 lead Freestone to believe that interest rates will continue to come down.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The unemployment rate is affecting those new to the labour force<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Freestone notes that the unemployment rate has increased by 1.8%. While the current rate of 6.5% is an improvement from the approximately 14% seen during the height of the pandemic, people who were not previously working \u2014 such as students and newcomers to Canada \u2014 are finding it hard to find jobs. \u201cWe\u2019re starting to see that it\u2019s an extremely challenging time for university students and new graduates to find that first job,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the U.S., meanwhile, the unemployment rate is rising from a particularly low level. Freestone and other economists are monitoring it to see what happens next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The impact of the U.S. election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A new administration in the White House means the relationship between Canada and the U.S. will not be status quo. From tariffs to taxes, the new president\u2019s to-do list is likely to affect Canadians to some degree \u2014 economists are keeping a close eye on just what the impact might be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The CAD versus USD forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As the U.S. economy has been outperforming Canada&#8217;s, Freestone expects the Canadian Dollar to weaken in Q4 2024 and into Q1 2025. Further, since interest rates are materially higher in the U.S. relative to Canada, the U.S. Dollar is expected to strengthen. \u201cOur expectation is that in Q4 and Q1, the CAD will average 71 U.S. cents \u2014 so a little weaker than it is today.\u201d Freestone does expect, however, that the CAD will improve against the USD in the back half of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Housing affordability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Freestone notes that in Canada, housing affordability has been severely challenged. While demand for housing has been strong, there hasn\u2019t yet been a big uptick in activity, even with recent interest rate cuts. Freestone predicts that this is because affordability is continuing to hamper activity. \u201cMany people are finding it very hard to not only save for a down payment but also to qualify for a mortgage because, in many cities, the average price for homes is upwards of a million dollars in Canada.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Further, Freestone notes that Canadians are, on average, having to devote more than 60% of their pre-tax income in order to afford a home. In Ontario and B.C., it\u2019s much worse, climbing upwards of 80%. \u201cSo, it\u2019s very difficult for buyers to get into the market,\u201d she says.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While there has been some price correction since the market peaked in 2022, prices remain significantly above where they were at the beginning of the pandemic, and affordability continues to constrain many buyers. When asked if she expects a housing crash in Canada, Freestone believes that will not happen. \u201cDemand is so strong. Even if many, many buyers are constrained, there are still some people who have access to down payments. Our population is growing very quickly, and we\u2019re not building homes fast enough to accommodate this growth, so housing prices will continue to go up.\u201d Having said that, Freestone does not expect to see the level of appreciation seen during the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The bottom line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While inflation and interest rates are coming down, Canadians may continue to feel the pinch when it comes to everyday goods and housing costs in particular. But there are reasons to be optimistic: interest rates might provide relief for borrowers, housing costs aren\u2019t expected to rise at the same pace they have in recent years, and young people looking for jobs may see some bright spots in 2025 as the labour market is expected to open up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block section-cool-white pos-rel has-f-5-f-8-f-9-background-color has-background\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner mar-b-hlf\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-block-inner-block block-inner\">\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel pad-t-0 pad-b-0\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block inner-section-cool-white section-inner  pad-b-0 pad-t-0 has-f-5-f-8-f-9-background-color has-background\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns mar-b-0 is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column mar-r mob-mar-r-0 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large mar-b-0\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2023\/08\/SMB_Tip_5_-_Woman_doing_online_shopping.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"Woman in cafe shopping online with laptop\" class=\"wp-image-24851\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\t\n\t<div class=\"wp-block-tk-spacer id-42c38fcd-0958-4ca6-8fbf-980eced8b1d7\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column mar-r mob-mar-r-0 is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading mar-t-0 mar-b-0 pad-b mob-pad-b\" id=\"h-travelling-to-the-u-s\">Travelling to the U.S.?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Set up your U.S. banking and credit card before you travel to make life simpler.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\n\t<div class=\"wp-block-tk-spacer id-4ec88a35-738d-4e38-a2cc-569816ab8409\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n\t\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcbank.com\/dms\/cross-border\/canadians-travelling-to-the-us-i-or.html?utmsource=Blog&amp;utmmedium=organic\" data-dig-id=\"LP-58132-5a0e1eee\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Learn more\" class=\"rbc-link-format goto-link\" data-icon-class=\"goto-link\">Learn more<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\t\n\t<div class=\"wp-block-tk-spacer id-a698ac42-7c51-4f02-baa3-6a73e4fd7b81\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-default-collapsible\"><p><button class=\"collapse-toggle collapsed\" data-target=\"#collapse834a1009\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"collapse834a1009\" data-dig-id=\"LP-90519-834a1009\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"accordion closed\" action-closed=\"accordion closed\" action-opened=\"accordion open\" data-dig-label=\"Things our lawyers want you to know\"><span>Things our lawyers want you to know<\/span><span>Things our lawyers want you to know<\/span><\/button><\/p><div class=\"collapse-content collapse\" id=\"collapse834a1009\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-collapsible-inner-block collapse-inner\">\n<p>This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RBC Bank is RBC Bank (Georgia), National Association (\u201cRBC Bank\u201d), a wholly owned U.S. banking subsidiary of Royal Bank of Canada, and is a member of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (\u201cFDIC\u201d). U.S. deposit accounts are insured by the FDIC up to the maximum amount permissible by law. U.S. banking products and services are offered and provided by RBC Bank. Canadian banking products and services are offered and provided by Royal Bank of Canada. U.S. deposit accounts are not insured by the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation (\u201cCDIC\u201d). RBC Bank, Equal Housing Lender.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"54\" height=\"62\" style=\"vertical-align: middle;margin: 0 2px;width: 30px\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2023\/08\/House_logo-1-185.jpg\" alt=\"equal housing lender\"><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\t\n\t<div class=\"wp-block-tk-spacer id-b783b054-195f-4196-820a-b32550d2ba00\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center h5 mar-b\"><strong>Share This Article<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"socials-block\">\n\t\t\t    <div class=\"social-links mob-mar-b-hlf mob-mar-t-hlf\">\n            <a class=\"social-button-wrapper sharing-custom sharing-email\" href=\"mailto:?subject=The Canadian Economy: Analyzing Past Trends to Forecast Future Outlook &#038;body=Hi, I thought you might be interested in this article from RBC My Money Matters: 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and Insights<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/topic\/snowbird\/\" class=\"btn topic mar-t-0 mar-r-qtr mar-b-hlf\">Snowbird<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel mob-pad-t-dbl\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading mar-b mob-mar-b-dbl mar-t-0\" id=\"h-read-this-next\">Read This Next<\/h2>\n\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"related-posts-type-2\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"related-post-list\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"grid-wpr eh-wpr\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class= 'grid-one-third grid-tb-full grid-mob-full mar-b'>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<article class=\"col-wpr mar-b-0 mar-r-0 mar-l-0\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"postcard-img-ctr post-card-image col-md-12 col-xs-6 mob-mar-b-0 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{\n\t\t.wp-block-tk-spacer.id-42c38fcd-0958-4ca6-8fbf-980eced8b1d7 {\n\t\t\theight: 24px;\n\t\t}\n\t}\t\n\t\t.wp-block-tk-spacer.id-4ec88a35-738d-4e38-a2cc-569816ab8409 {\n\t\theight: 10px;\n\t}\n\n\t@media ( max-width: 480px ) {\n\t\t.wp-block-tk-spacer.id-4ec88a35-738d-4e38-a2cc-569816ab8409 {\n\t\t\theight: 10px;\n\t\t}\n\t}\t\n\t\t.wp-block-tk-spacer.id-a698ac42-7c51-4f02-baa3-6a73e4fd7b81 {\n\t\theight: 1px;\n\t}\n\n\t@media ( max-width: 480px ) {\n\t\t.wp-block-tk-spacer.id-a698ac42-7c51-4f02-baa3-6a73e4fd7b81 {\n\t\t\theight: 24px;\n\t\t}\n\t}\t\n\t\t.wp-block-tk-spacer.id-b783b054-195f-4196-820a-b32550d2ba00 {\n\t\theight: 96px;\n\t}\n\n\t@media ( max-width: 480px ) {\n\t\t.wp-block-tk-spacer.id-b783b054-195f-4196-820a-b32550d2ba00 {\n\t\t\theight: 30px;\n\t\t}\n\t}\t\n\t\t.wp-block-tk-spacer.id-1478a9c1-bc08-48f2-bb42-119241ede073 {\n\t\theight: 60px;\n\t}\n\n\t@media ( max-width: 480px ) {\n\t\t.wp-block-tk-spacer.id-1478a9c1-bc08-48f2-bb42-119241ede073 {\n\t\t\theight: 30px;\n\t\t}\n\t}\t<\/style>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>RBC economist Carrie Freestone shares her outlook for the 2025 Canadian and U.S. economies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":80,"featured_media":90522,"parent":57294,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[528,521,76,126],"rbc_content_type":[31],"rbc_audience":[],"rbc_lob_group":[122],"rbc_difficulty_level":[70],"rbc_mmm_category":[344,303,347,311,345],"class_list":["post-90519","rbc_my_money_matter","type-rbc_my_money_matter","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-cross-border","tag-economy","tag-ideas-and-insights","tag-snowbird","rbc_content_type-article","rbc_lob_group-cross-border","rbc_difficulty_level-intermediate","rbc_mmm_category-buying-or-refinancing-a-us-property","rbc_mmm_category-goals-aspirations","rbc_mmm_category-living-in-the-us","rbc_mmm_category-travel-and-cross-border","rbc_mmm_category-travelling-and-shopping-in-the-us"],"acf":{"contently_publication_id":"199926","custom_author":"Diane Amato","rbc_video_header":"","rbc_media_duration":"","rbc_video_keywords":"","rbc_video_description":"","rbc_video_upload_date":"","rbc_toc_for_mmm_tag":"h2","rbc_toc_for_mmm_limit":6,"rbc_toc_for_mmm":null,"rbc_toc_for_mmm_action":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"RBC economist Carrie Freestone shares her outlook for the 2025 Canadian and U.S. economies.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/goals-aspirations\/travel-and-cross-border\/living-in-the-us\/the-canadian-economy-analyzing-past-trends-to-forecast-future-outlook\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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