{"id":92124,"date":"2025-02-04T16:02:07","date_gmt":"2025-02-04T21:02:07","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2025-04-30T09:51:12","modified_gmt":"2025-04-30T13:51:12","slug":"mortgage-rates-going-up-or-down-what-the-u-s-fed-rate-cuts-mean-for-you","status":"publish","type":"rbc_my_money_matter","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/goals-aspirations\/travel-and-cross-border\/buying-or-refinancing-a-us-property\/mortgage-rates-going-up-or-down-what-the-u-s-fed-rate-cuts-mean-for-you\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates Going Up or Down? What the U.S. Fed Rate Cuts Mean for You"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p>In December, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its overnight rate by 25 basis points, marking its third consecutive rate cut. But mortgage rates in the U.S. haven\u2019t followed suit. In fact, rates have gone up \u2013 not down \u2013 since the Fed began lowering rates in September. Why? Here we look at what really affects mortgage interest rates in the U.S., and what\u2019s behind the recent rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-block drop-shadow pos-rel top-line-blue block-wpr  mar-b-hlf\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-block-inner-block block-inner\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tldr\">TLDR<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. is benchmarked to the 10-year Treasury yield \u2013 not the Fed\u2019s overnight rate<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The rate on the 10-year Treasury yield is driven largely by future economic expectations rather than current monetary policy<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The U.S. is facing stubborn inflation figures and economic uncertainty as new policies take shape under a changing administration \u2013 this future uncertainty drives up the rates that are more closely tied to U.S. fixed rate mortgages<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Factors that drive mortgage rates in the U.S.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The rise and fall of mortgage rates in the U.S. are not influenced by one single factor \u2013 rather, there are several drivers that may cause fluctuation. The health of the economy is a major influencer \u2013 economic downturns tend to lead to reduced demand for credit, and as lenders compete for borrowers, rates typically go down. The opposite holds true when the economy is healthy. Inflation is another key factor. Since lenders have to ensure that interest rates are higher than the rate of inflation to maintain the value of returns, mortgage rates tend to rise with inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, federal monetary policy decisions have both a direct and indirect effect on mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve\u2019s overnight rate, also known as the federal funds rate, serves as a key benchmark that influences all other interest rates in the economy. But wait\u2026 the federal funds rate has been going down while mortgage rates have gone up, right? The reason is that fixed rate mortgage rates are influenced less by current monetary policy and more by future outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The impact of future monetary policy and the secondary mortgage market on fixed mortgage rates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend money to one another overnight, making it an interest rate on very short-term lending. So, interest rates on other short-term bonds and loans will move very closely with changes to this overnight rate. Because a 30-year mortgage is a long-term loan, the correlation between the federal funds rate and the 30-year mortgage rate isn\u2019t all that tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe federal funds rate influences short-term consumer loans and credit cards,\u201d explains Jaren Hawks, Senior Product Manager, Real Estate Financing at RBC. \u201cA 30-year mortgage has a different timetable, so is influenced by different rates, and has a different benchmark.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That benchmark is the 10-year Treasury yield, as its term is closer to the average mortgage. As this rate moves, mortgage rates tend to follow suit. This connection exists because of the secondary mortgage market, where investors buy mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In this secondary market, lenders bundle the mortgages they underwrite and sell them to investors. More on that later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When it comes to the effect of monetary policy, it\u2019s true that current monetary policy has some impact on the 10-year Treasury note rate. However, it\u2019s investors\u2019 expectations for future monetary and fiscal policy, economic growth and inflation that have the greater influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because the Treasury yield is so closely linked to future expectations, it wasn\u2019t the rate cut itself that had the greatest impact on fixed mortgage rates in December. Rather, it was more the message that the Fed will take a more cautious approach to rate cuts in 2025 that contributed to the rise in mortgage rates. Following the December announcement, economists changed their thinking: while they initially thought rates might be reduced to below 3 percent, they now project that the Fed will keep rates between 3.5 and 4 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, why is the Fed taking a cautious approach? At the December meeting, most Fed members agreed that inflation risks are rising, pointing to stubbornly high prices, strong economic growth, and the potential effects from changes in trade and immigration policies tabled by the Trump administration. Fed staff also warned that tariffs could slow economic growth and keep inflation high, adding to the uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Term premiums also play a role in mortgage rates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The term premium is the portion of the 10-year Treasury yield that reflects additional compensation investors expect for buying longer-term debt versus repeatedly reinvesting in short-term securities. In other words, it&#8217;s the extra return investors demand for tying up their money in a longer-term investment, given the uncertainty and risk that comes with holding debt for a longer period. The term premium is partly driven by the balance between supply and demand for Treasury bonds and partly by uncertainty \u2013 the more uncertain the future is, the more compensation investors require because buying longer debt becomes riskier.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 10-year term premium has risen a total of 85 basis points since September, when the Fed announced the first of last year\u2019s three rate cuts. This rise would explain at least half of the increase in long-term rates. Case in point: the rise in the term premium aligns with the 111.7 basis-point jump in the 10-year Treasury yield during the same period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u201cThe spread\u201d can have an impact on rising rates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While fixed mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield are closely linked, they\u2019re not exactly the same \u2013 there is a gap between the two, which is known to economists as \u201cthe spread.\u201d The spread, or difference, between the rate offered on a 30-year mortgage and the 10-year Treasury note is made up of two components:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The primary-secondary mortgage spread, which represents industry origination costs such as servicing fees, guaranty fees and other lending costs and profits<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The secondary mortgage spread, which represents the additional risk that investors take on when investing in a mortgage-backed security (MBS) relative to investing in a 10-year Treasury<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Typically, the gap is 1.5 to 2 percentage points, but for much of 2023 and 2024, the gap grew to 3 percentage points, further bumping up mortgage rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why have spreads been so high? Here again, uncertainty plays a role: people are unsure about the future. After all, mortgage rates soared in a short amount of time \u2013 rising from 3.15 percent in November 2021 to 7.12 percent in October 2022 \u2013 so Americans don\u2019t really know what to think going forward! Moreover, the recent negotiations over federal debt between former President Biden and House Republicans have played a role. History has shown that even getting close to a breach of the U.S. debt ceiling could cause significant disruptions to financial markets \u2013 in fact, the last federal debt showdown \u2013 in 2011 \u2013 caused spreads to widen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With this potential economic disruption comes a wariness by both lenders and investors to take on risk, which in turn translates to an extra fee to borrow. As such, spreads rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another contributing factor is that there are fewer buyers for mortgage mortgage-backed securities (MBS). During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve bought billions of dollars\u2019 worth of mortgage bonds, but they\u2019re no longer in the market for them. And so, remaining MBS buyers are looking for a better deal. As you might expect, when investor demand is high, mortgage rates trend lower. When investors aren\u2019t buying, rates might rise to attract them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While spreads have leveled out recently, their sustained widening in recent years have contributed to the rise in mortgage rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How the Fed rate cuts affect adjustable-rate mortgages<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Fixed-rate mortgages dominate the U.S. mortgage landscape \u2013 of the 40 percent of Americans that have a mortgage, a whopping <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stlouisfed.org\/on-the-economy\/2024\/feb\/which-households-prefer-arms-fixed-rate-mortgages#:~:text=About%2040%25%20of%20U.S.%20households,of%20the%20principal%20loan%20amount.\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-92124-dca71387\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"92 percent have a fixed rate mortgage\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">92 percent have a fixed rate mortgage<\/a>. The remaining 8 percent have adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). Adjustable-rate mortgages (also known as variable-rate mortgages) have interest rates that can change over time based on the financial index they are linked to. While they start out with a fixed rate for a certain period of time, once this fixed period is up, rates adjust on a regular basis according to whatever index the rate is tied to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, with a 7\/1 ARM, you would pay the same interest rate for the first seven years, then the rate would adjust every year after that. With a 5\/6 ARM, meanwhile, the rate is fixed for the first five years, then adjusts every six months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rates on ARMs are often tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). Because the Fed&#8217;s rate decisions influence savings tools, raising or lowering the federal funds rate can make the SOFR go up or down. Accordingly, ARM rates go up or down as well when the rate resets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, if the federal funds rate goes up, your ARM rate will increase as well at the next adjustment. And of course, when the federal funds rate goes down, so too will your ARM rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhile ARMs can help you save money in a declining interest rate environment, the risk of rising rates is a key reason so many Americans prefer the stability of a fixed-rate mortgage,\u201d says Hawks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How Canadian and U.S. mortgages respond differently to federal rate cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have both a Canadian and U.S. mortgage and have seen federal interest rate cuts both sides of the border, you may wonder why Canadian mortgage rates have come down while U.S. mortgage rates have gone up. The main reason is that Canadian mortgages have shorter refinancing terms versus their U.S. counterparts. Consider this: In the U.S., the mortgage terms span the length of the amortization period \u2013 hence the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Canadian mortgages, meanwhile, have a number of shorter mortgage terms within the amortization period (think your standard 3-year or 5-year term). This means that changes to the Bank of Canada\u2019s overnight rate affect Canadians\u2019 mortgage rates more directly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More Canadians have variable rate mortgages than Americans too \u2013 while roughly 13% of Canadians had variable rate mortgages at the start of 2024, their popularity is rising once again. Remember, only 8 percent of Americans have a mortgage with a variable rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. Federal Reserve doesn\u2019t determine fixed mortgage rates, but its policy decisions do affect the larger economic picture, which in turn influences your borrowing costs. So, while interest rate cuts may not have a direct impact, the Fed\u2019s monetary policy will affect mortgage rates indirectly \u2013 it\u2019s just not an immediate correlation. Rather, a complex web of factors influence fixed mortgage rates. And, with considerable uncertainty, sticky inflation figures and changing policies with a new U.S. President, the Fed has issued a message of caution. This means mortgage rates haven\u2019t dipped even with recent rate cuts \u2013 and they will likely maintain their current range for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide is-stacked-on-mobile pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mar-b-hlf has-cool-white-background-color has-background\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"744\" height=\"502\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2021\/06\/Capture_79d43a.png?quality=80&amp;w=744\" alt=\"A happy family\" class=\"wp-image-90143 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2021\/06\/Capture_79d43a.png 744w, https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2021\/06\/Capture_79d43a.png?resize=300,202 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 744px) 100vw, 744px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thinking-of-buying-a-u-s-home\">Thinking of Buying a U.S. Home?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>RBC U.S HomePlus\u2122 Advantage is built exclusively for Canadians to provide full-service support through every step of the U.S. home buying process<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcbank.com\/cross-border\/us-mortgages\/rbc-us-homeplus.html?utm_source=Blog&amp;utm_medium=organic&amp;utm_campaign=MMM\" data-dig-id=\"LP-57810-6dd4a1fc\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Learn More\" class=\"rbc-link-format goto-link\" data-icon-class=\"goto-link\">Learn More<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In December, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its overnight rate by 25 basis points, marking its third consecutive rate cut. But mortgage rates in the U.S. haven\u2019t followed suit. In fact, rates have gone up \u2013 not down \u2013 since the Fed began lowering rates in September. Why? Here we look at what really affects mortgage interest rates in the U.S., and what\u2019s behind the recent rise.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":132,"featured_media":92126,"parent":57291,"menu_order":0,"template":"wp-custom-template-optimizely-mmm","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[528,521,550,57,520,126],"rbc_content_type":[31],"rbc_audience":[],"rbc_lob_group":[122],"rbc_difficulty_level":[208],"rbc_mmm_category":[344,303,347,311],"class_list":["post-92124","rbc_my_money_matter","type-rbc_my_money_matter","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-cross-border","tag-economy","tag-finding-home","tag-home-ownership","tag-managing-money","tag-snowbird","rbc_content_type-article","rbc_lob_group-cross-border","rbc_difficulty_level-advanced","rbc_mmm_category-buying-or-refinancing-a-us-property","rbc_mmm_category-goals-aspirations","rbc_mmm_category-living-in-the-us","rbc_mmm_category-travel-and-cross-border"],"acf":{"contently_publication_id":"","custom_author":"Royal Bank of Canada","rbc_video_header":"","rbc_media_duration":"","rbc_toc_for_mmm_tag":"h2","rbc_toc_for_mmm_limit":6,"rbc_toc_for_mmm":null,"rbc_toc_for_mmm_action":"Generate Table Of Contents"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.7 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In December, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its overnight rate by 25 basis points, marking its third consecutive rate cut. But mortgage rates in the U.S. haven\u2019t followed suit. In fact, rates have gone up \u2013 not down \u2013 since the Fed began lowering rates in September. Why? Here we look at what really affects mortgage interest rates in the U.S., and what\u2019s behind the recent rise.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/goals-aspirations\/travel-and-cross-border\/buying-or-refinancing-a-us-property\/mortgage-rates-going-up-or-down-what-the-u-s-fed-rate-cuts-mean-for-you\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In December, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its overnight rate by 25 basis points, marking its third consecutive rate cut. But mortgage rates in the U.S. haven\u2019t followed suit. In fact, rates have gone up \u2013 not down \u2013 since the Fed began lowering rates in September. Why? Here we look at what really affects mortgage interest rates in the U.S., and what\u2019s behind the recent rise.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/goals-aspirations\/travel-and-cross-border\/buying-or-refinancing-a-us-property\/mortgage-rates-going-up-or-down-what-the-u-s-fed-rate-cuts-mean-for-you\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Royal Bank\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-04-30T13:51:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2025\/02\/iStock-875403094-fed-rate-cut.jpg?quality=80\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/goals-aspirations\/travel-and-cross-border\/buying-or-refinancing-a-us-property\/mortgage-rates-going-up-or-down-what-the-u-s-fed-rate-cuts-mean-for-you\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/goals-aspirations\/travel-and-cross-border\/buying-or-refinancing-a-us-property\/mortgage-rates-going-up-or-down-what-the-u-s-fed-rate-cuts-mean-for-you\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"RBC\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/#\/schema\/person\/d26fa338061f7798d91f054ba4687c36\"},\"headline\":\"Mortgage Rates Going Up or Down? 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