{"id":92696,"date":"2025-03-05T15:53:19","date_gmt":"2025-03-05T20:53:19","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2025-04-25T10:15:05","modified_gmt":"2025-04-25T14:15:05","slug":"how-a-weak-canadian-dollar-could-impact-businesses-and-investors","status":"publish","type":"rbc_my_money_matter","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/business\/right-sized-business-advice\/commercial\/how-a-weak-canadian-dollar-could-impact-businesses-and-investors\/","title":{"rendered":"How a Weak Canadian Dollar Could Impact Businesses and Investors"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-block drop-shadow pos-rel top-line-blue block-wpr  mar-b-hlf\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-block-inner-block block-inner\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tldr\">TLDR<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The Canadian dollar hit a 22-year low on January 31 2025, the day the 25% tariffs with the United States were set to be imposed<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>While the decline was seemingly sudden, the dollar\u2019s trajectory was predicated on more than just tough trade talks, such as consumer debt and interest rates<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Recovery could be slow, even if tariffs issues are settled, due to anticipated cuts to interest rates by the Bank of Canada<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Businesses, investors and consumers should operate under the assumption that a weaker Canadian dollar is the new normal, at least for the next few months<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The Canadian dollar has seen a rapid decline since President Trump\u2019s first tariffs threats in January, but the currency is poised to further trail the greenback regardless of trade policy, with significant implications for Canadian businesses, consumers and investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In recent months the dollar has seen <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankofcanada.ca\/publications\/mpr\/mpr-2025-01-29\/in-focus-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-92696-0c519f48\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"steep declines\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">steep declines<\/a> following the <a href=\"https:\/\/ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/graydon-glans\/blog\/4414266-The-2024-US-Presidential-Election-What-now-Election-aftermath\" data-dig-id=\"LP-92696-fcc7ecea\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"election\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">election<\/a> of Donald Trump, his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/ckg0m79gm10o\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-92696-6c703208\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"threat\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">threat<\/a> to impose a 25% tariffs on Canadian imports, the Federal Reserve\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/news\/economy\/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rate-by-quarter-point\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-92696-ac9ab38d\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"announcement\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">announcement<\/a> that it would slow its rate cutting cycle in December, and in the run-up to the original January 30 tariff deadline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In October of 2024 the Canadian dollar was trading at $0.74 U.S. After the American election, it dropped to $0.72. After the Fed\u2019s December decisions, it fell below $0.70 for the first time since the COVID outbreak in early 2020. On January 31\u2014the day 25% tariffs were set to be imposed, before a last minute delay\u2014the Canadian dollar hit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/currencies\/canadian-dollar-rebounds-22-year-low-tariff-pause-hopes-2025-02-03\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-92696-43c93f9a\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"a 22-year low\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">a 22-year low<\/a> of $0.68 USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-how-we-got-here\">How we got here<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While the decline was seemingly sudden, its trajectory was predicated on a lot more than just tough talk on trade and won\u2019t see an equally dramatic recovery even if trade talks prove productive, says George Davis, RBC\u2019s Managing Director of Fixed Income, Currencies &amp; Commodities in Capital Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOne of the interesting themes that we&#8217;ve seen over the last couple of years has been the general outperformance of the U.S. economy relative to the Canadian economy in terms of economic growth,\u201d he explains. \u201cA lot of that has been fueled by the consumer; the U.S. consumer has been much more resilient in this higher interest rate environment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Davis explains that Canadian consumers are carrying a much higher debt load, which is weighing on domestic spending. As of the third quarter of last year Canadians were <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/canada\/households-debt-to-income\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-92696-d9c78de5\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"managing an average of $1.75\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">managing an average of $1.75<\/a> of debt for every dollar they earned. South of the border, meanwhile, income growth <a href=\"https:\/\/libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org\/2024\/11\/income-growth-outpaces-household-borrowing\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-92696-b8e9a3c7\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"outpaced borrowing in Q3\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">outpaced borrowing in Q3<\/a>, reaching $0.82 cents for every dollar earned. \u201cThe carrying cost of that debt has really just sidelined the [Canadian] consumer in terms of spending activity,\u201d Davis explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another key factor diverging the two economies is the impact of recent interest rate hikes. That\u2019s because Americans typically pay a consistent rate through the lifespan of their mortgage, while Canadians renew every few years, making them more susceptible to interest rate hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cUp until a few years ago it wasn&#8217;t that significant, because the interest rates had been trending lower,\u201d Davis says. \u201cAnd then all of a sudden we get into 2022, and we have this very abrupt change wherein rates start to move aggressively higher.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While those rate hikes had a direct impact on the household finances of Canadian mortgage holders at renewal, the average American hasn\u2019t seen a change to pre-existing debt servicing costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe whole economic divergence theme was in place well before the U.S. election and Trump, and then the threat of tariffs promptly after the election was the nail in the coffin that just pushed risk to a much more heightened level,\u201d Davis adds. \u201cThat&#8217;s why we&#8217;ve had such a sharp move over a very short period of time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-forecast-for-the-canadian-dollar\">Forecast for the Canadian dollar<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Though the decline was rapid, its recovery could be much slower, even after the tariff issue is settled. That\u2019s because the Bank of Canada is expected to continue cutting interest rates\u2014three more times this year according to <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/navigating-2025-looking-better-and-unsettling-all-at-once\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-92696-00e48d84\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"forecasts from RBC Economics\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">forecasts from RBC Economics<\/a> \u2014 while the American Fed is not, furthering the gap between the two economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe do see a little bit more Canadian dollar weakness going through to the middle of the year, and that\u2019s predicated by a continuation of this widening in interest rate differentials,\u201d Davis says. \u201cWe think that\u2019s going to have a negative impact on currency through the middle of the year, but we think it could turn a little more positive in the second half.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Davis adds that those assumptions are based on what he refers to as a \u201cmoderate and targeted tariff scenario,\u201d whereby the American president does move forward with moderate tariffs but only on specific goods, such as steel, aluminum and lumber. Should those talks devolve, or if blanket tariffs are imposed, the Canadian dollar could decline even further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-implications-of-the-weak-canadian-dollar-for-businesses-and-consumers\">Implications of the weak Canadian dollar for businesses and consumers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>For the meantime, Davis says Canadian businesses and investors need to operate under the assumption that a weaker Canadian dollar is the new normal, at least for the next few months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That could be a boon to exporters, who will be able to slash prices and reap greater profits from selling into foreign markets, assuming they aren\u2019t weighed down by new tariffs. Importers, as well as Canadians that intend to travel or shop in the United States, meanwhile, should brace for higher prices, and potentially adjust their plans accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThat general uncertainty is going to cast a big cloud over the economy,\u201d Davis adds. \u201cThere&#8217;s going to be a high degree of caution, so businesses aren&#8217;t going to be as aggressive in terms of expenditures, capital investments, etc., and consumers might be a little bit more conservative as well.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-implications-for-investors\">Implications for investors<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors should also brace for higher levels of uncertainty and volatility in the months ahead, and potentially through the entirety of the Trump administration, given the president\u2019s proclivity for using tariff threats as a political tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe currency was more on the backburner in terms of how clients were perceiving the risks that were there, but it\u2019s now moved to the front burner, and it\u2019s starting to boil,\u201d Davis says. \u201cIt&#8217;s really driven home the point that it&#8217;s always good to have a hedging strategy in place to try and protect yourself from some of these adverse outcomes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-stay-informed-with-the-latest-analysis-and-guidance\">Stay informed with the latest analysis and guidance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Canadians can explore <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-92696-26ac0ced\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"RBC\u2019s thought leadership\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">RBC\u2019s thought leadership<\/a> page to stay on top of new developments, reach out to their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/investments\/myadvisor.html\" data-dig-id=\"LP-92696-da899bac\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"banking advisors\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">banking advisors<\/a> to discuss risk exposure, or connect with \u200b<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbccm.com\/en\/expertise\/foreign-exchange.page\" data-dig-id=\"LP-92696-24206710\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"RBC\u2019s Global Fixed Income &amp; Currencies Team\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">RBC\u2019s Global Fixed Income &amp; Currencies Team<\/a> to learn more about the currency\u2019s trajectory and its implications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOur Hedging Advisory Group, for example, can help you look at what your risks are, get a sense of your tolerance for risk, and then put together some potential risk management and hedging strategies,\u201d Davis says. \u201cThis environment is really a call to action to have those discussions, so that you\u2019re not being reactive, but a little bit more proactive.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recovery could be slow, even if tariffs issues are settled, due to anticipated cuts to interest rates.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":132,"featured_media":92695,"parent":57338,"menu_order":0,"template":"wp-custom-template-optimizely-mmm","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[581,574],"rbc_content_type":[31],"rbc_audience":[110],"rbc_lob_group":[35],"rbc_difficulty_level":[70],"rbc_mmm_category":[305,391,326],"class_list":["post-92696","rbc_my_money_matter","type-rbc_my_money_matter","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-commercial-economy","tag-commercial-insights","rbc_content_type-article","rbc_audience-business-owners","rbc_lob_group-business","rbc_difficulty_level-intermediate","rbc_mmm_category-business","rbc_mmm_category-commercial","rbc_mmm_category-right-sized-business-advice"],"acf":{"contently_publication_id":"","custom_author":"Jared Lindzon","rbc_video_header":"","rbc_media_duration":"","rbc_video_keywords":"","rbc_video_description":"","rbc_video_upload_date":"","rbc_toc_for_mmm_tag":"h2","rbc_toc_for_mmm_limit":6,"rbc_toc_for_mmm":null,"rbc_toc_for_mmm_action":"Generate Table Of Contents"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Canadian is not expected to make a fast recovery regardless of trade policy, with significant implications for businesses, consumers and investors.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/business\/right-sized-business-advice\/commercial\/how-a-weak-canadian-dollar-could-impact-businesses-and-investors\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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