{"id":98354,"date":"2026-06-30T14:03:41","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T18:03:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/?post_type=rbc_my_money_matter&#038;p=98354"},"modified":"2026-06-30T14:21:59","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T18:21:59","slug":"navigating-a-changing-landscape-what-todays-economy-means-for-canadas-food-beverage-sector","status":"publish","type":"rbc_my_money_matter","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/business\/business-stages\/grow-your-business\/navigating-a-changing-landscape-what-todays-economy-means-for-canadas-food-beverage-sector\/","title":{"rendered":"Navigating a Changing Landscape: What Today\u2019s Economy Means for Canada\u2019s Food &amp; Beverage Sector"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-block drop-shadow pos-rel top-line-blue block-wpr\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-block-inner-block block-inner\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tldr\">TLDR<\/h4>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\"><p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The economy was recovering heading into 2026, but renewed trade challenges and rising oil prices have reintroduced uncertainty<\/p><\/li>\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\"><p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Roughly 90 per cent of Canadian exports still enter the U.S. tariff free under CUSMA, which is widely expected to hold through its July review<\/p><\/li>\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\"><p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cost pressures and a highly concentrated Canadian retail market are squeezing margins, but disruption is reshaping demand<\/p><\/li>\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\"><p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The clearest advantage is what\u2019s already within reach: knowing your numbers, managing risks and leaning on your partners<\/p><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div><br>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At a recent event, RBC and MNP invited business leaders across food &amp; beverage and consumer sectors to a candid discussion about the economic and political forces shaping their industry \u2013 and the strategies to navigate them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canada\u2019s food &amp; beverage sector has long been a national economic strength, supporting both jobs and exports. Yet the ground feels less steady than it has in years. A recovering economy has collided with renewed trade uncertainty, higher oil prices and ongoing global economic disruptions, leaving many owners working to stay ahead of change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To explore what these forces mean for businesses, a panel of RBC and MNP experts shared their outlook and, more importantly, where the opportunities lie:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-cool-white-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"has-text-lg-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Jane Henderson<\/strong>, <em>Moderator<\/em><br>Managing Director, Corporate Client Group, RBC<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-lg-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Claire Fan<\/strong><br>Senior Economist, RBC<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-lg-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Lana Difrancescomarino<\/strong><br>VP, Risk Solutions Group, RBC<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-lg-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mnp.ca\/en\/personnel\/matt-macdonald\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-98354-1c1ca0ba\" data-dig-label=\"Matt MacDonald\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Matt MacDonald<\/a><\/strong><br>National Food &amp; Beverage Processing Leader, MNP<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-lg-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mnp.ca\/en\/personnel\/mike-cristea\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-98354-8c632e90\" data-dig-label=\"Mike Cristea\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Mike Cristea<\/a><\/strong><br>Tariffs and Trade Advisory Leader, MNP<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Together, they moved past the macro headlines to focus on what individual businesses need to navigate a volatile environment: resilience, agility and the discipline to act on things within reach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-economic-backdrop-in-brief\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The economic backdrop, in brief<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Heading into 2026, the Canadian economy was on a firmer footing than headlines suggested. Last year marked the first real per-capita GDP growth in three years, with lower interest rates supporting the recovery. But earlier this year, renewed trade uncertainty and rising oil prices reset the mood, reintroducing volatility for households and businesses alike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consumer spending has held up better than general sentiment, but the recovery is uneven. RBC Senior Economist Claire Fan described a \u201cK-shaped\u201d economy, where household spending is splitting in two directions: higher-income earners keep spending and getting further ahead, while lower-income households face growing strain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;These days, we see more lower-income households having to rely on government transfers to sustain their most basic needs,&#8221; she said. &#8220;It tells you something about the environment \u2013 that there is a divergence in economic outcomes not represented in headline statistics.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-cool-white-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"has-text-major-xs-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cWe see more lower-income households having to rely on government transfers to sustain their most basic needs.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-major-xs-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u2014 Claire Fan, Senior Economist, RBC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On interest rates, the near-term picture is one of prudence. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady through the year, with RBC forecasting up to four rate hikes in 2027. Notably, expectations for future rate hikes are already priced in, with fixed rates moving up persistently even as benchmark rates have stayed put \u2013 a reminder for businesses that their borrowing rates are determined by more than central bank decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-tariffs-and-cusma-what-business-owners-need-to-know\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tariffs and CUSMA: What business owners need to know<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For all the noise around trade policy, the takeaway for Canadian food &amp; beverage businesses is more reassuring than many business owners might expect. As MNP\u2019s Tariffs and Trade Advisory Leader Mike Cristea shared, roughly 90 per cent of Canadian exports enter the U.S. tariff-free thanks to compliance with the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) \u2013 and the panel was confident the agreement would endure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-cool-white-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"has-text-major-xs-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cThe U.S. has many, many times demonstrated they care about the agreement.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-major-xs-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u2014 Claire Fan, Senior Economist, RBC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe U.S. has many, many times demonstrated they care about the agreement,\u201d noted Fan, in large part because tariff-free access also means lower input costs for American importers \u2013 and as a result, lower prices for U.S. consumers. A decision on July 1 to extend (or not) the CUSMA expiry date beyond 2036 is fast approaching, but Fan expected no change in U.S. tariff rates as an immediate result of that decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That leaves uncertainty \u2013 not the tariffs themselves \u2013 as the primary pain point. \u201cBusiness owners tell us, \u2018as soon as we know what\u2019s happening with CUSMA, things will be much better, because we\u2019ll have clarity,\u2019\u201d said RBC\u2019s Jane Henderson. She noted that many have already put the right measures in place. \u201cPeople who took the time to become CUSMA-compliant are in a good position, which is why perspectives from advisors like Cristea have become increasingly more critical in the last year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Amid this ambiguity, businesses are also facing rising input costs while under pressure to maintain prices at retail \u2013 a combination that only adds to an already challenging operating environment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cYou can reduce your duty costs not by changing what you do, but by changing where you do parts of it \u2013 either in Canada or the U.S.,\u201d Cristea explained. That can mean shifting part of the production chain across the border and, in turn, lowering the duty owed when goods cross \u2013 an approach typically managed through customs origin preferences and transfer pricing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-cristea-shared-three-levers-to-help-lower-your-effective-tariff-rate\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cristea shared three levers to help lower your effective tariff rate:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>CUSMA compliance.&nbsp;<\/strong>Ensure your product qualifies for tariff-free access under the agreement.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Duty drawback.&nbsp;<\/strong>Recover duties paid on imported inputs that are re-exported after processing.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Tariff planning.&nbsp;<\/strong>Structuring inputs and production to align with legal tariff classifications under current trade agreements.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-why-margins-are-tight-rising-costs-meet-a-concentrated-retail-market\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why margins are tight: rising costs meet a concentrated retail market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Within the domestic market, the bigger challenge is margin. Rising input costs \u2013 including fuel, commodities, fertilizer and climate-affected crops \u2013 are running up against a retail environment where price increases are hard to pass through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Part of the consideration is the Canadian retail landscape. As Matt MacDonald, National Food &amp; Beverage Processing Leader at MNP, notes, Canada\u2019s top four retailers control roughly 72 per cent of the market as highlighted in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mnp.ca\/en\/industries\/food-and-beverage-processing\/momentum-is-building-canadas-rise-in-global-agri-food\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-98354-a5f6b9f5\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"MNP\u2019s Global Most Influential Nations Ranking report\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">MNP\u2019s Global Most Influential Nations Ranking report<\/a>. This level of concentration reduces optionality for producers, limiting access to diverse channels, increasing reliance on a small number of buyers, and compressing margins across an already complex and costly supply chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It also illustrates the challenges of scale. As MacDonald illustrates, a single U.S. regional grocer can operate as many locations in the southeast as a national Canadian chain does across the entire country, highlighting how geography and concentration together shape a very different operating environment in Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the dynamic is most acute in food &amp; beverage, similar margin pressures are playing out across consumer sectors wherever pricing power is constrained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-cool-white-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"has-text-major-xs-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em>\u201cCanada\u2019s geography and resources are a core strength, but its scale introduces inherent logistical complexity, reinforcing the need for disciplined planning and strong strategic partnerships.\u201d<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-major-xs-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>\u2014 Matt MacDonald, National Food &amp; Beverage Processing Leader, MNP<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The path forward, MacDonald suggests, is collaboration \u2014 creating more intentional forums for the industry to align, share insight and tackle shared challenges. In doing so, businesses can unlock efficiencies and navigate the constraints of scale more effectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">5 min read:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcroyalbank.com\/en-ca\/my-money-matters\/business\/right-sized-business-advice\/commercial\/how-canadas-food-and-beverage-producers-can-adapt-to-market-instability\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-98354-c49d5b32\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"How Canada\u2019s Food and Beverage Producers Can Adapt to Market Instability - My Money Matters\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">How Canada\u2019s Food and Beverage Producers Can Adapt to Market Instability &#8211; My Money Matters<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-opportunity-turning-gaps-into-growth\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The opportunity: Turning gaps into growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disruption doesn\u2019t necessarily eliminate demand \u2013 more often, it changes where and how that demand appears. Even as households pull back on big-ticket purchases, smaller indulgences like premium coffee and everyday treats have proven resilient \u2013 and quick-serve formats are gaining share while traditional dining continues to lag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For businesses, the opportunity lies in responding to such shifts quickly and deliberately. Larger players are buying into faster-growing categories or segmenting brands to capture changing preferences without diluting their core positioning. But scale doesn\u2019t guarantee agility, and that is where smaller, nimbler producers are often better placed, able to move quickly, carve out niche growth and meet demand as it evolves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.mnp.ca\/foodreport\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-98354-3e2c1c59\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"MNP Food Report\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">MNP Food Report<\/a>: Momentum is building: Canada\u2019s rise in global agri-food<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"h-\">For many businesses, success will come down to a few fundamentals: building strong strategic relationships, refining supply chains and protecting margins. Together, these create the flexibility to move quickly and capture new pockets of growth as they emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-cool-white-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"has-text-major-xs-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em><em>\u201cIn today\u2019s market, scale alone isn\u2019t enough. The advantage goes to businesses that can pivot quickly, protect their margins and respond to demand as it shifts.\u201d<\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-major-xs-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong><strong>\u2014 Matt MacDonald, National Food &amp; Beverage Processing Leader, MNP<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-focus-on-what-you-can-control\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Focus on what you can control<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Uncertainty is colouring how many owners and operators price, partner and run their businesses. With so much in flux, the panel\u2019s practical advice was to concentrate on the levers within reach. As RBC\u2019s Lana Difrancescomarino put it: \u201cThere\u2019s so much you can\u2019t control \u2013 tariffs, the economy, the consumer. But you can control your level of knowledge. In the worst case, you learn something new and put more tools in your toolbox.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For food &amp; beverage and consumer businesses, the panel recommended four priorities:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n    <li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\"><p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Know your own numbers<\/strong>.\u00a0Timely, accurate financial data is the single most powerful decision-making tool, making it possible to model scenarios \u2013 whether that\u2019s a rate change, a cost increase or a new tariff \u2013 before they happen.<\/p><\/li>\n    <li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\"><p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Manage the financial risks you can.\u00a0Foreign exchange<\/strong>, interest rate and commodity exposures can be actively managed through hedging and tailored financing, taking some volatility off the table.<\/p><\/li>\n    <li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\"><p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Lean on your partners<\/strong>.\u00a0Bankers and advisors can recommend tools, strategies and financing options that can help relieve pressures on the areas outside your control.<\/p><\/li>\n    <li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\"><p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Build diversification into your long-term plan<\/strong>.\u00a0Exploring new markets and supply routes is a strategic decision \u2013 not a reaction to make under pressure.<\/p><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-what-it-means-for-your-business\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">What it means for your business<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The macroeconomic picture will likely remain fuzzy for some time, but the panel\u2019s message was ultimately an optimistic one. Trade stability is the likely path forward, and the businesses best positioned to thrive will be those that stay nimble \u2013 while staying close to their numbers, managing what they control and moving quickly when opportunities open up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h3 id=\"h-how-rbc-can-help\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">How RBC can help<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For your business to reach its full potential, you need more than just banking products. Enjoy tailored support from specialists who have cultivated in-depth knowledge and meaningful relationships in your industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Contact your RBC relationship manager to learn more about solutions to help move your business forward.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-default-collapsible\"><p><button class=\"collapse-toggle collapsed\" data-target=\"#collapse834a1009\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"collapse834a1009\" data-dig-id=\"LP-57738-834a1009\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"accordion closed\" action-closed=\"accordion closed\" action-opened=\"accordion open\" data-dig-label=\"Things our lawyers want you to know\"><span>Things our lawyers want you to know<\/span><span>Things our lawyers want you to know<\/span><\/button><\/p><div class=\"collapse-content collapse\" id=\"collapse834a1009\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-collapsible-inner-block collapse-inner\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>RBC and MNP experts break down the current dynamics facing Canadian businesses \u2014 and the conversation that followed was as practical as it was timely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":90,"featured_media":98357,"parent":57329,"menu_order":0,"template":"wp-custom-template-mmm-sticky-nav","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"tags":[574,157,577],"rbc_content_type":[31],"rbc_audience":[110],"rbc_lob_group":[35],"rbc_difficulty_level":[33],"rbc_mmm_category":[305,323,391,382,326],"class_list":["post-98354","rbc_my_money_matter","type-rbc_my_money_matter","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-commercial-insights","tag-entrepreneur","tag-international-trade","rbc_content_type-article","rbc_audience-business-owners","rbc_lob_group-business","rbc_difficulty_level-beginner","rbc_mmm_category-business","rbc_mmm_category-business-stages","rbc_mmm_category-commercial","rbc_mmm_category-grow-your-business","rbc_mmm_category-right-sized-business-advice"],"acf":{"contently_publication_id":"","custom_author":"Diane Amato","rbc_video_header":"","rbc_media_duration":"","rbc_video_keywords":"","rbc_video_description":"","rbc_video_upload_date":"","rbc_toc_for_mmm_tag":"h2","rbc_toc_for_mmm_limit":6,"rbc_toc_for_mmm":[{"title":"The economic backdrop, in brief","url":"#h-the-economic-backdrop-in-brief"},{"title":"Tariffs and CUSMA: What business owners need to know","url":"#h-tariffs-and-cusma-what-business-owners-need-to-know"},{"title":"Why margins are tight: rising costs meet a concentrated retail market","url":"#h-why-margins-are-tight-rising-costs-meet-a-concentrated-retail-market"},{"title":"The opportunity: Turning gaps into growth","url":"#h-the-opportunity-turning-gaps-into-growth"},{"title":"Focus on what you can control","url":"#h-focus-on-what-you-can-control"},{"title":"What it means for your business","url":"#h-what-it-means-for-your-business"}],"rbc_toc_for_mmm_action":"Generate Table Of Contents"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast 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