In our Treasury Management series, RBC speaks with Canadian businesses and the specialists who advise them about how money moves through a modernized treasury operation and what leaders are learning about managing cash flow, risk and payments.
Key Takeaways
The exchange rate is the most visible aspect of foreign exchange (FX) management, but not the only part that affects cost. The route a payment takes determines how much of it arrives, and when.
Currency exposure comes in three forms: fluctuation, devaluation and concentration. Concentration is the risk of relying on a single approach.
Tools such as forward contracts, real-time rates and foreign currency accounts each manage risk differently, and work best in combination.
Foreign currency decisions often involve cash flow, credit and sourcing, which is where specialized advice from cash management specialists plays a role.
A company doesn’t have to be a major exporter to carry foreign currency exposure. Sourcing components from overseas, invoicing an American customer in U.S. dollars and paying for a software subscription billed from across the border all expose Canadian businesses to exchange rates they have no control over.
For some organizations, that exposure stays small and manageable. But for those with substantial cross-border activity, the past couple of years have moved foreign currency from a background treasury concern to a direct driver of financial performance. Shifting trade relationships have made the economic environment considerably harder to plan against, and margins already under pressure have less room to absorb an unfavourable rate.
Either way, FX is worth managing actively rather than absorbing as a cost of doing business. And while the exchange rate is the headline of foreign currency management, it’s only part of the story. Planning for currency risk in advance, making sure foreign payments arrive when they’re supposed to and keeping fees to a minimum along the way all affect what operating in another currency ultimately costs.
The good news for finance teams is that payment technology and reporting have advanced considerably, enabling companies to see and control more than they could five years ago. The tools exist, and so does the expertise – it’s largely a question of knowing what’s available and having the right people to help you apply it.
Foreign exchange risks: What to watch, and what to manage
There is no shortage of data on currency performance – and plenty of ways to study how a currency has behaved over time. But it can’t tell you where that rate will be next quarter.
The reason is that currency values respond to a wide range of inputs. Economic data releases, central bank decisions, commodity prices, trade developments and political events all feed into how a currency is valued. And they don’t move in any kind of coordinated way.
“There are certain indicators that treasurers and the companies we serve can look at to get a sense of what could impact currency,” says Geoff Noftall, Head of International Payments and FX, Cash Management Solutions at RBC. “But it’s not an easy equation at all.”
Forecasting the market, then, isn’t a realistic goal. The objective instead is to know what your foreign currency will cost, and to have a plan for the portion you can’t lock in.
The indicators that help guide decision-making
While FX movement can’t be predicted, the inputs that influence it can be watched. Most matter for the same reason: they signal where interest rates are heading. Higher rates tend to attract capital, which strengthens a currency.
Indicators worth following include:
Central bank rate decisions and forward guidance. Announcements from the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve are the most significant scheduled events for the Canadian dollar. Guidance about future direction is often just as important as the decision itself.
Inflation data. Consumer price index releases feed directly into expectations about rate direction.
Employment data. Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey and U.S. non-farm payrolls are both closely watched.
Growth data. Quarterly GDP releases, along with revisions to previous figures.
Commodity prices, particularly crude oil. The Canadian dollar has a long-standing sensitivity to commodity prices, so movements in the energy market can affect the currency independently of Canadian economic data.
Because a substantial share of Canadian exports remains destined for the United States, U.S. data releases can move the Canadian dollar as much as domestic ones. Therefore, it’s worth watching U.S. releases as closely as Canada’s.
In addition to these scheduled indicators, there are several unscheduled factors that can influence currency movement, such as trade policy developments, political events and sudden shifts in market sentiment. These events tend to produce the sharpest movements and are often the least predictable. Staying close to the news helps, but the fact that the biggest currency moves can’t be anticipated makes the case for managing exposure rather than timing the market.
For ongoing analysis of the Canadian dollar and the conditions influencing it, RBC Economics publishes regular commentary and outlooks.
Three risks to manage
Currency exposure comes in three forms. A business can be well protected against one while fully exposed to another.
Fluctuation is an ongoing two-way movement. A rate that shifts between the day a contract is priced and the day a payment is made changes what the transaction costs, directly affecting margins.
Devaluation is a sustained decline in a currency’s value. A business already holding – or expecting to receive – a currency that falls sees the purchasing power of that holding fall with it. As such, buying currency early manages one risk while introducing another.
Concentration is the risk that comes from how a business responds to the first two. Committing fully to a single approach can feel like the disciplined choice, but it limits the ability to adjust when conditions change.
“You cannot put everything in one bucket,” says Noftall. “I would always recommend managing risk not with one control but with multiple controls and multiple options, so you’re not putting yourself into a corner that’s hard to get out of.”
Tools that can help manage foreign exchange risk
Several tools can help a business manage the exposure above. Many companies use a combination of the following, in proportions that shift as their exposure and outlook change.
Real-time exchange rates
Seeing the rate at the moment a payment is processed removes the guesswork from day-to-day transactions. A company debiting a Canadian dollar account to send a U.S. dollar wire sees the exact cost in Canadian dollars before confirming.
Forward contracts
A forward contract – commonly called a hedge – lets a company lock in the cost of a future foreign currency obligation today. The value is certainty. Once the cost is fixed, it becomes a number you can build into a quote or budget.
“A hedge allows a client with a contract in foreign currency to know exactly what their cost is going to be,” says Noftall. “So if I need to add a margin, or look at the impact across my business, I know tangibly that’s a specific cost I can use.”
Foreign currency accounts
Holding balances in the currencies a business uses most reduces the number of conversions required and provides the option to buy currency when conditions are favourable rather than when a payment falls due. A business that both invoices and pays in U.S. dollars, for instance, can run much of that activity without converting at all.
How Canadian companies are now managing FX
Over the past 12 to 18 months, a few trends have emerged in how Canadian companies with cross-border activity are managing foreign currency. What they share is making a currency decision earlier in the transaction, at a point when a company has more options and more control.
Setting a hedging policy
Rather than hedging everything or nothing, many companies now cover a defined share of payables with forward contracts – a fixed percentage at any given time – and adjust that share as conditions warrant. The advantage of a policy is that nobody has to judge whether a given day’s rate is a good one. The share is set in advance, applied consistently and revisited on a schedule rather than in response to a headline.
“Pre-planning becomes part of day-to-day business management,” says Noftall.
Buying ahead of anticipated cost increases
Ahead of recent tariff activity, elevated purchasing and trade volumes were visible in transaction data, with companies pre-ordering materials where cash flow and credit capability allowed. It’s a trend that has continued as trade tensions develop.
While purchasing earlier comes with a carrying cost, the move may still be a better option than facing higher costs later.
Pre-purchasing currency
Some companies are also buying foreign currency ahead of a known requirement and holding it until a payment is due. It’s a way of acting on a rate the business considers favourable rather than accepting whatever the rate is on payment day. This move does come with devaluation risk if currency is held too long, which is why it tends to work best for a requirement that is known and reasonably near-term.
While these moves don’t make a company immune to currency movement, they do provide greater control over cost and timing. When a company decides in advance how much of its currency exposure is fixed, it can quote, budget and commit to a margin without waiting to see where the rate lands.
Groupe Lacasse: Foreign exchange management as a strategic lever
Groupe Lacasse designs and manufactures commercial furniture from its home base in Sainte-Pie, Quebec, serving customers across Canada and the United States. More than 70 per cent of its products are sold south of the border, making foreign exchange an everyday business consideration rather than simply a treasury question.
For CFO Maxime Vallières, managing that exposure means understanding how movements in the Canadian and U.S. dollars could affect margins – and giving the business time and flexibility to respond.
“On currency, we have a long-term strategy using a mix of forwards, options and spot and we build the exchange rate into our margins,” he says. “Those are the two levers we use to manage foreign exchange.”
Building FX into pricing
The exchange rate is always top of mind but takes on added significance when pricing customized work. Roughly 60 per cent of its U.S. business involves special pricing, where a customer approaches the company for a specific project. Rather than treating FX as something to account for after a contract is won, Lacasse incorporates it into the economics of the deal from the beginning.
The finance team reviews the margin on each of those opportunities using the exchange rate at the time.
“If it’s 1.38, I account for it. If it’s 1.45, I account for that,” Vallières says.
Doing so gives the business a more current view of what a project is expected to contribute before it commits to the price – especially when currency itself can account for part of the company’s profit as a Canadian exporter.
Using forwards to create time to adjust
Pricing at the current rate doesn’t eliminate the risk that the currency will move between the time the price is set and U.S. revenue is received. This is where forward contracts become another lever.
Lacasse uses forwards to manage a portion of its exposure and reduce the impact of a weaker U.S. dollar. As Vallières explains, the company benefits from the currency difference when the U.S. dollar is strong, while forwards give it time to adjust if that advantage begins to narrow.
It’s an example of using more than one FX control: one helps Lacasse account for currency when it prices the work, while another helps manage what can happen after that price has been set.
Managing FX in an uncertain environment
Currency assumptions are formally reviewed during Lacasse’s annual budgeting process, but they aren’t left untouched until the next budget cycle.
“We review the foreign exchange rate annually in our budget process, but really we look at it every week, if not every day,” says Vallières.
The frequency reflects the broader environment Lacasse is operating in. Vallières describes uncertainty – including changing trade conditions and customers delaying capital expenditures – as one of the company’s biggest current challenges. His role is increasingly to understand what those changes could mean for Lacasse’s P&L and cash over the next three, six or 24 months.
Lacasse can’t know where exchange rates will be several months from now. Instead, its approach is to build currency into the decisions it can make today – pricing with the current rate in mind, using forwards to manage future exposure and monitoring conditions frequently enough to adjust when they change.
Questions to answer before setting a currency hedging policy
What exposure are we covering? Payables, receivables or both – and in which currencies.
What share do we want fixed? A higher share means more certainty and less potential upside.
How far out do we cover? Match the horizon to how far ahead you can forecast with confidence.
What triggers a change? Agree in advance, so the policy isn’t reopened every time conditions shift.
Who approves it, and when do we review it? A standing date and a clear owner keep a policy operating as it should.
How does this fit with our other currency decisions? Hedging is one control among many.
Go deeper: What is currency hedging?
Beyond the rate: What else affects an international payment
Securing a good rate is one part of managing an international payment. How the payment travels is the other – how much of it arrives, when it gets there and how much you can see along the way.
We look at the mechanics of moving money in more depth in our article: How Canadian Businesses are Automating Payments and Improving Cash Flow
Fees: What gets deducted
An international payment may pass through several banks before reaching its destination – and each institution involved may deduct a charge. The result is a shortfall that has to be absorbed somewhere. “If a payment routes through a number of different banks, each is going to take a charge,” says Noftall. “You may have sent 10,000 euros, but by the time it gets there, it could be 9,980 euros.”
A related consideration is which currency a payment is sent in. Sending Canadian dollars to a supplier who doesn’t hold a Canadian dollar account means someone else performs the conversion, at a rate you have no part in setting. Converting before the payment leaves keeps the decision – and its cost – within your control.
Payment options beyond the wire
Wire transfers still carry most international payment volume, and are well-suited to higher-value, one-off transfers. But they aren’t the only option, and for recurring payments or payments into markets where a company doesn’t maintain a local account, other methods can arrive more predictably and at a lower cost.
RBC International Pay delivers into local clearing systems rather than routing through correspondent banks. It reaches beneficiaries in over 200 countries and can pay in more than 80 currencies. Payments are sent from Canadian or U.S. dollar accounts, either one-time or recurring, and beneficiaries receive the full principal value.
“We have clients with very large operations in different countries, but they’re managing their treasury centrally from Canada,” says Noftall. “Whether you need to reconcile or fund that account, you can consolidate it in Canada and manage it more proactively from your treasury operations here.”
Cross-border ACH handles low-value recurring payments – payroll, pension, regular supplier payments – originated from Canada and delivered locally. For a treasury team, it removes the need to maintain an account and a balance in each market.
Tracking: What visibility can a business expect?
International payment tracking has improved considerably in recent years. Payments sent over the SWIFT network can be tracked end to end, showing when the payment left the sending bank, which institutions handled it, what was deducted and when the beneficiary was credited.
Timing is often better than expected, too. “I’ve seen U.S. dollars leave the bank and be credited to the beneficiary in the United States within minutes,” says Noftall.
Visibility does vary with complexity, however. A payment routed through several intermediaries in a less common corridor offers less clarity than a direct route in a higher-profile region. Tracking capability also differs by payment type – while wire payments are easier to track, other cross-border payment methods tend to offer less transparency.
Payments can also be held – for screening, a suspected irregularity or missing or mismatched information. If the beneficiary’s name doesn’t match the account on file, for instance, the receiving bank may request clarification or return the payment, a process that generally takes longer than the original transfer did.
The same conditions that make an international payment harder to track make a fraudulent one harder to recover. Different languages, time zones and payment rules all slow the process down – making internal controls that much more important.
The role of advice and expertise in managing FX
Foreign exchange decisions are rarely made in isolation. A question about hedging a share of payables turns into a question about the cash flow cycle, then about credit capacity, then about whether a supplier relationship is worth restructuring. This is where advice comes in.
How embedded finance makes advice proactive
Advice is most valuable before a decision is made. Embedded finance – the direct connection between a company’s systems and its bank’s – makes that timing possible, as it shifts the bank’s view from what has already happened to what’s coming up.
“If we can see a company’s cash flow cycles and see its payables and receivables from a data perspective, we can help with predictive analysis,” says Noftall. “We can say, ‘You have 100,000 euros in your account, and based on your spending and what we see coming up on the payables side, you’re going to run out of euros.’”
Having that insight six weeks ahead of time is a different situation from discovering it on the day a payment is due. With this sort of knowledge in hand, a company can book a forward contract, buy euros now if the rate is good, or wait if there’s reason to expect movement.
Specialists can break down currency complexity
Of course, choosing between these options calls for judgment about the currencies involved, market conditions and the position of the business. “Having someone who is a specialist, who has their ear to the ground, who understands what’s happening from a currency perspective and the different trends, can have the right kinds of conversations,” says Noftall.
In addition to relationship management teams, RBC is adding a team of dedicated foreign exchange specialists. They work alongside treasury sales and service and capital markets teams, providing advice based on a client’s needs, goals and plans.
5 pieces of advice for managing foreign exchange
From Geoff Noftall, Head of International Payments and FX, Cash Management Solutions at RBC.
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Stay current on the conditions that affect your currencies
Grounding your currency decisions in trade developments, central bank announcements and relevant data releases can help you decide when to act and when to wait.
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Proactively manage risks
Look at what payables and receivables are coming over the next several quarters, and decide in advance what portion of that exposure you want to lock in.
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Don’t put all your eggs in one basket
Combining approaches – some exposure hedged, some managed at the time of transaction and some held in foreign currency – can give you room to adjust to changing conditions.
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Keep a close eye on your cash flow cycle
Currency decisions are cash flow decisions. Knowing when money is going out, in what currency and against what obligations can give your team more flexibility to make the right moves.
For more on managing the cycle itself, see our Optimizing Liquidity and Working Capital article.
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Stay connected with your bank
Currency questions typically involve credit, sourcing, payment methods and timing. Engaging with your relationship manager can help ensure you have the right overall solutions.
FX is constantly in motion, and its moves are often unpredictable. While no amount of preparation can control rates, it can help you plan around them. A proactive approach can turn currency from an unpredictable variable into a manageable business risk.
Transform FX risk into opportunity
Doing business in any foreign currency can be challenging—and the timing of your currency conversions can often have a major impact on your business results.
RBC can help turn currency exposure into a managed variable and minimize foreign exchange risk when buying or selling outside of Canada, regardless of the currency.
Talk to your RBC Relationship Manager about the foreign exchange and international payment tools available to support your cross-border activity.
Visit the Foreign Exchange for Business page for payment tools and solutions.
Frequently asked questions (FAQs) about FX
There’s no single tool that covers every currency fluctuation. Most businesses combine a few: forward contracts (hedging) to lock in the cost of a known future obligation, real-time rates monitoring for day-to-day payments and foreign currency accounts to hold and pay in the currencies they use most. The right mix depends on how much of your cost base is exposed, how far ahead you can forecast and how much certainty you need to price your work.
A forward contract, also known as hedging, lets you lock in today’s foreign exchange rate for a payment you’ll make in the future. It tends to make the most sense when you have a known obligation on a known date, and when you’ve already quoted or contracted at a price you need to hold. The benefit is certainty, rather than a better, or possibly worse, rate.
An international payment may pass through several banks on the way to the beneficiary, and each one may deduct a charge. Sending in the beneficiary’s currency and using a method that delivers into the local clearing system can reduce or remove those deductions.
International payments often take less time than businesses assume. Payments sent over the SWIFT network can settle within minutes in common corridors, though timing varies with the route, the number of intermediaries and the destination market. Payments can also be held for screening or for missing or mismatched details, which is why accurate beneficiary information is important.
A foreign currency account can help if you regularly both pay and receive funds in the same currency, since it reduces how often you convert. It also gives you the option of buying currency when conditions are favourable, rather than when a payment is due.
No, businesses don’t need to forecast exchange rates. Rates respond to too many inputs at once for reliable forecasting. The more realistic goal is to know what your currency will cost and to have a plan for the portion you can’t lock in.
This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates.
