Global Trade Policy Shifts: Four Considerations for Canadian Agriculture in the New Trade Environment

“We are in a time of real structural transition in agriculture; that’s the backdrop for everything else that’s happening.” — Ambassador Darci Vetter, International Trade Expert.

Former Chief Agricultural Negotiator for the U.S. Trade Representative, Darci Vetter shared this perspective at a recent RBC agriculture thought leadership discussion exploring how international trade policy shifts are reshaping operations for Canada’s next generation of producers.

While trade continues to drive profitability and growth within Canadian agriculture, this new landscape requires a higher level of thinking. This includes strategies that consider improving farm resilience through diversification, recognizing the growing importance of environmental sustainability data and policy changes, and watching out for (and responding to) opportunities to pivot in a more dynamic trade environment.

What’s Changing in Global Agricultural Trade – and What It Means for Canadian Producers

Central to Vetter’s address was a clear message: as the rules of global trade change, Canadian producers should try to evolve with them to stay competitive. Meaning the stable, predictable system farmers once knew has given way to a far more complex and rapidly shifting environment. One shaped by overlapping forces like policy changes, increasing global competition, and climate concerns. A shift that supports producers in moving away from reactive decision-making towards a more proactive approach.

Three observations that stood out most from the keynote address:

1. Regenerative agriculture practices could extend the productivity of many key production zones by 5–10 years.
2. The main driver of environmental sustainability is not just government regulation, but also companies’ and investor demand to future proof supply chains and build resilience.
3. Global trade policy, particularly in the United States, is moving away from multilateral trade agreements toward a more unilateral, tariff-driven approach.

Four Considerations for Canadian Agriculture in the New Trade Environment

1. Trade policy is unpredictable — diversify and plan accordingly.

CUSMA ties Canada tightly to the U.S. and Mexico, which brings integration benefits, but also reflects a shared exposure to evolving conditions and outcomes, since products and inputs often cross borders multiple times before reaching their destination. At the same time, Canada has access to markets the U.S. does not, and agreements like CPTPP and CETA offer real pathways to diversify trade.

Ideas to consider: Treat trade policy as a core business risk including not relying on one trade partner. Diversify export markets directly or indirectly, build flexibility into marketing plans, and monitor policy changes closely. Explore new trade deals and emerging markets to lower tariff exposure and to help open new revenue streams.

2. Environmental sustainability creates market differentiation opportunities.

Agriculture is entering a period of meaningful change. Structural shifts, evolving market dynamics, and a growing focus on environmentally sustainable production are providing new ways to think about how operations are managed and grown. At the same time, buyers and agri-food companies who are placing greater value on transparency around emissions, soil health, and water usage data, are now choosing to engage more frequently with producers who demonstrate ongoing progress. This shift presents new opportunities for Canadian producers, especially as global markets continue to place a premium on consistent, high-quality supply from stable growing regions.

Ideas to consider: Look for ways to strengthen on-farm productivity and long-term flexibility by integrating practices and tools that support both environmental and business goals including:

• Improve soil health and water management to support more consistent production while enhancing efficiency
• Use tools like RBC Climate Explorer or Agriculture Canada’s HOLOS to understand your environmental footprint
• Track and document progress to differentiate your operation and align with changing market expectations
• Explore programs that reward environmental performance and provide preferred supplier opportunities

3. Supply chain resilience helps to create competitive advantages.

Geopolitical disruptions and trade barriers are impacting the cost of inputs, including fertilizer, seed, equipment, and feed, making reliable sources harder to find. This is an operational pressure that compounds quickly when left unaddressed.

Ideas to consider: Focus on efficiency, cost management, and supply chain planning. Source inputs from multiple suppliers, reduce waste where possible, and adjust production plans to stay competitive as costs shift.

4. Share your story.

Canadian farmers can influence trade policy, environmental sustainability programs, and regulations by sharing their views with peer groups, policymakers, industry organizations and consumers to ensure they are part of the conversation and not an afterthought.

Ideas to consider: Take an active role in trade policy discussions or be available for consultations to make sure your voice is heard. The rules being written now will shape the markets in which you compete for years to come.

The Path Forward: Positioning Next Generation Producers for Long-Term Success

Canadian producers need to watch for several emerging trends: a continued climate shift that is redefining where and how crops are grown; environmental sustainability requirements becoming more standardized with clearer reporting expectations; and trade relationships remaining fluid as new agreements and conflicts continue to reshape the market.

Navigating this environment means approaching change with a broader sense of opportunity and growth. Rather than relying on traditional exports to traditional partners, producers can consider diversifying products and markets.

Collaboration across the value chain matters here too. Input providers, farm advisors, buyers, and financial partners can all provide resources to help implement new programs and technologies. Additionally, participating in these initiatives can offer financial incentives, technical support, or preferred supplier status that offsets transition costs.

By embracing innovation, adapting to new market realities, and leveraging Canada’s strong global position, Canada’s next generation of agricultural leaders will help to build successful operations and a strong industry for generations to come.